Weekly pending gross sales
Pending dwelling gross sales knowledge supplies a week-to-week perspective, although outcomes might be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations. The final six weeks have proven optimistic yearly development. Nevertheless, the yearly development did decelerate final week and the week-to-week knowledge dipped.
Weekly pending gross sales normally take 30-60 days to hit the gross sales knowledge. Usually, mortgage charges above 6.64% and breaking over 7% actually impression the info. Beneath 6.25% has been the candy spot over the previous a number of years, excluding short-term variables.
Weekly pending gross sales final week during the last two years:
- 2026: 70, 209
- 2025: 69,183
Mortgage buy utility knowledge
Buy utility knowledge is a forward-looking indicator: development right here leads dwelling gross sales by roughly 30-90 days. Final week, we did see year-over-year development, but it surely slowed from 12% to five%, and we noticed a week-to-week decline of 5%. So, increased mortgage charges bit into the yearly development knowledge final week.
For this knowledge line, what I actually worth is not less than 12-14 weeks of optimistic weekly development. If you may get this alongside year-over-year development, we have now one thing legit, for certain. For 2026, each week has proven optimistic year-over-year development.
Right here’s 2026 to date:
- 5 optimistic week-over-week prints
- 5 destructive week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 7 weeks of double-digit year-over-year development
- 11 weeks of optimistic year-over-year development
10-year yield and mortgage charges
Within the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the next ranges:
- Mortgage charges between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The ten-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%
When the Iran battle began, I talked about how I might be shocked if it continued previous March 21 due to the financial implications of conflict, together with increased power and enter prices. The longer the battle goes on, the upper short-term charges can go till we see actual financial injury.
In final weekend’s tracker, I talked about how the 10-year yield has the backdrop now to move again to the height ranges of my forecast for 2026. Because of the Iran escalation, we noticed an intraday excessive of 4.48% on Friday, closing round 4.44%. Thoughts that we have been sub-4% earlier than the conflict began, and it took a couple of weeks earlier than the mortgage charges and the 10-year yield began to take this conflict extra critically, however right here we’re, near the height of the 2026 forecast.
Clearly, the conflict wasn’t the explanation I forecast this degree, however all analysts have to regulate to loopy occasions.
Mortgage charges ended the week at 6.64%, in response to Mortgage Information Day by day, and Polly’s mortgage fee lock knowledge reveals a weekend fee of 6.41%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads stay a optimistic story for housing in 2026, as mortgage charges would have simply been over 7% in 2023, 2024 and 2025, with the worst ranges of the spreads. Nevertheless, the spreads, which have been getting worse in February as yields fell, compressing volatility on the draw back, at the moment are heading increased with this conflict. However even now, as you’ll be able to see under, we’re nonetheless at higher ranges than the previous two years.
Traditionally, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Final week’s spreads closed at 2%.
Nevertheless, I wished to indicate what charges could be this week in comparison with the worst ranges of the spreads over the previous three years, with the 10-year yield at its present degree.
- If we had the worst ranges of mortgage spreads in 2023, mortgage charges could be 7.75% immediately, not 6.64%.
- If we had the worst ranges of 2024, mortgage charges could be 7.37% immediately.
- If we had the worst ranges of 2025, mortgage charges could be 7.18% immediately.
Weekly housing stock knowledge
Housing stock is beginning its seasonal improve. That stated, the expansion fee of stock has actually slowed from final yr’s peak ranges. Nevertheless, we’re removed from the unhealthy ranges of 2021, 2022 and 2023.
We now have gone from 33% year-over-year development in stock on the highest level in 2025, to five.69% final week. Previously, stock development picked up amid increased charges, softening demand and rising year-over-year new listings.
- Weekly stock change: (March 21-March 28): Stock rose from 705,633 to 713,549
- Identical week final yr: (March 22 -March 39): Stock rose from 668,185 to 675,557
New listings knowledge
New listings knowledge had a gradual week, however was barely optimistic yr over yr. We must always get new listings above 80,000 per week in the course of the seasonal peak months, which might be on the low finish of the quantity we’d see in a traditional interval.
I’m hoping for the brand new listings knowledge to vary between 80,000 and 100,000 per week in the course of the seasonal peak intervals, because it did from 2013 to 2019. Nevertheless, it’s trying much less and fewer possible for this to happen. For context, in the course of the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for a number of years.
Right here is final week’s new listings knowledge for the previous two years:
- 2026: 67,934
- 2025: 67,855
Worth-cut share
Usually, about one-third of houses endure value reductions earlier than they promote, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage charges and stock rise collectively, the proportion of value cuts will increase.
In my 2026 dwelling value forecast, I had a destructive 0.62% name for the yr nationally. Nevertheless, mortgage charges have been decrease than I assumed they might be initially of the yr, and the FHFA’s introduced buy of mortgage-backed securities pushed mortgage spreads decrease than I anticipated. I believed we’d see that enchancment afterward within the yr.
So, earlier than the battle began, my forecast appeared fallacious for 2026. Now, if charges head increased and keep increased for longer, I do have a shot at my name being extra right. Nonetheless, the price-cut share is under final yr right now.
The value-cut share for final week:
The week forward: Iran, Iran, Iran and jobs week
I do know it’s jobs week, and that does have some worth even with the battle nonetheless going; nevertheless, nothing will likely be regular till this conflict ends. Additionally, the markets aren’t taking the White Home jawboning to carry oil costs down as critically as they’ve earlier than, so will probably be attention-grabbing to see the bond market response to grease costs and the labor knowledge this week.
