Weekly pending gross sales
Pending dwelling gross sales knowledge supplies a week-to-week perspective, although outcomes might be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations, such because the large winter storm in January. We have been displaying year-over-year development firstly of the 12 months, after which the snowstorm slowed issues down.
Now that each one the snow knowledge is gone, we’ve three straight weeks of year-over-year development, which ought to be the case on condition that mortgage charges have been beneath 6.25% all 12 months lengthy.
Weekly pending gross sales final week during the last two years:
- 2026: 66,127
- 2025: 63,508
Mortgage buy software knowledge
Buy software knowledge is a forward-looking knowledge line: the expansion right here leads gross sales roughly 30-90 days out, and final week we noticed 10% year-over-year development with 6.1% week-to-week development.
For this knowledge line, what I actually worth is not less than 12-14 weeks of constructive weekly development. If you will get this along with year-over-year development, we’ve one thing legit for certain. For 2026, each week has proven constructive year-over-year development. The final three weeks, mixed, have averaged 10% year-over-year development, which if this continues, ought to give us a pair hundred thousand extra dwelling gross sales this 12 months versus final 12 months.
As you’ll be able to see within the chart under, we do have some seasonality within the weekly knowledge.
Right here’s 2026 up to now:
- 3 constructive week-over-week prints
- 4 damaging week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 5 weeks of double-digit year-over-year development
- 8 weeks of constructive year-over-year development
10-year yield and mortgage charges
Within the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the next ranges:
- Mortgage charges between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The ten-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%
So what simply occurred final week? Oil costs went parabolic, and mortgage charges have been calm amid all of the Iran drama and the weak jobs report on Friday. Final week, my markers for the 10-year yield have been that bond merchants could be taking the Iran battle extra significantly if the 10-year yield closed above 4.15% and noticed follow-through promoting in bonds. That didn’t occur as a result of the roles’ Friday report was a bust, and bond merchants reacted to it.
However relating to oil costs, my marker was that if costs received over $82, all hell may break free as a result of if we go greater than that, there isn’t any market sense of closure on the Iran scenario, and issues can worsen. Oil rose as excessive as $92 final week and will go even greater this week.
Final week noticed a 41.6-cent-per-gallon enhance in gasoline costs, based on GasBuddy knowledge, which is among the many high 10 largest weekly will increase in historical past. I peg this disaster to finish 11-14 days from now, as a result of if issues worsen with oil costs, Republicans danger shedding extra seats within the midterms.
Bear in mind, airline gas and diesel, which transport meals, can push the price of residing up greater within the brief time period. I will probably be shocked if this lasts greater than 14 days if oil costs are elevated and preserve rising. For now, the 10-year yield has principally behaved solely as a result of the roles knowledge was damaging.
Charges ended the week at 6.14%, based on Mortgage Information Every day, and Polly’s mortgage price lock knowledge exhibits a weekend price of 6.14%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads stay a constructive story for housing in 2026, lowering mortgage-rate volatility, and are near regular ranges.
Traditionally, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Final week’s spreads closed at 1.94%.
If spreads matched the 2023 peak ranges, mortgage charges could be 1.17 share factors greater, at 7.31%. With spreads returning to regular, mortgage pricing can stay decrease for longer than in earlier years.
Realistically, we solely have 20-34 foundation factors of enchancment left within the spreads. The longer that volatility is compressed, the higher spreads can get later within the 12 months, however the huge enchancment right here has already run its course.
Weekly housing stock knowledge
Housing stock knowledge fell final week, which was a little bit of a shock. Hopefully, we’ll see the standard seasonal enhance in stock quickly. Stock is at a lot more healthy ranges now than a number of years in the past. Nonetheless, if stock doesn’t begin to develop quickly, we would have some damaging year-over-year stock knowledge towards the tip of March or early April.
We have now gone from 33% year-over-year development in stock on the highest level in 2025, to six.91% final week.
- Weekly stock change: (Feb. 27-March 6): Stock fell from 690,357 to 686,879
- Similar week final 12 months: (Feb. 28-March 7): Stock rose from 639,357 t0 642,479
New listings knowledge
New listings knowledge additionally confirmed a stable week-to-week enhance final week, whereas it’s nonetheless down 12 months over 12 months. We must always get new listings above 80,000 per week in the course of the seasonal peak months, which might be on the low finish of the variety of new listings we might get in a standard interval.
I’m hoping for the brand new listings knowledge to vary between 80,000 and 100,000 per week in the course of the seasonal peak durations, because it did from 2013-2019. For context, in the course of the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for a number of years.
Right here is final week’s new listings knowledge for the previous two years:
- 2026: 61,710
- 2025: 63,870
Worth-cut share
Sometimes, about one-third of houses endure value reductions earlier than they promote, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage charges and stock rise collectively, the share of value cuts will increase.
Nonetheless, charges are close to multiyear lows, so we are actually seeing damaging year-over-year price-cut share knowledge. This is smart on condition that demand has picked up barely and stock development has slowed. We’re beginning the seasonal shift greater within the price-cut knowledge, so the year-over-year knowledge will probably be key.
The value-cut share final week is now 1.25% decrease than this time final 12 months.
The value-cut share for final week:
The week forward: Iran, inflation, present dwelling gross sales and housing begins
To make myself clearer than ever: no present financial knowledge actually issues so long as this Iranian battle isn’t resolved. Oil costs can rise a lot greater. which implies greater gasoline costs, jet gas, and diesel costs, which might enhance meals costs. So, although we’ve numerous financial knowledge that will probably be launched this week, the Iran battle is extra vital.
Word that this present dwelling gross sales report popping out this week is the final report that can embody the snow affect. You may ensure that, like clockwork, each rookie pretend housing knowledgeable within the U.S. who had no concept why present dwelling gross sales fell final month nonetheless received’t perceive why they’re low this month. However you recognize higher since you learn this Housing Market Tracker and take heed to the HousingWire Every day podcast! So, get your popcorn and watch the horrible takes this week on the information they don’t perceive, whilst you’re prepared to elucidate what’s actually taking place.
