Weekly pending gross sales
Pending dwelling gross sales knowledge supplies a week-to-week perspective, although outcomes might be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations. The final 5 weeks have been constructive in our weekly pending gross sales knowledge. We will see if that strikes ahead, particularly now that charges hit a yearly excessive and so they may proceed greater this week.
Weekly pending gross sales often take 30-60 days to hit the gross sales knowledge. Sometimes, mortgage charges above 6.64% and breaking over 7% actually influence the information. Underneath 6.25% is the place the candy spot has been up to now a number of years, excluding short-term variables out of the equation.
Weekly pending gross sales final week over the past two years:
- 2026: 71,230
- 2025: 68,726
Mortgage buy software knowledge
Buy software knowledge is a forward-looking knowledge line: the expansion right here leads dwelling gross sales roughly 30-90 days out, and final week we noticed 12% year-over-year progress with 1% week-to-week progress. Weekly progress cooled final week and this week we’re liable to a unfavourable weekly print. This does occur typically when you’ve gotten back-to-back weeks of rising charges.
For this knowledge line, what I actually worth is at the least 12-14 weeks of constructive weekly progress. If you will get this alongside year-over-year progress, we’ve one thing legit, for positive. For 2026, each week has proven constructive year-over-year progress. The week-to-week knowledge has been constructive; nevertheless, that’s a lot simpler to do with charges underneath 6.25%.
Right here’s 2026 thus far:
- 5 constructive week-over-week prints
- 4 unfavourable week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 7 weeks of double-digit year-over-year progress
- 10 weeks of constructive year-over-year progress
10-year yield and mortgage charges
Within the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the next ranges:
- Mortgage charges between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The ten-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%
When the Iran battle began, I talked about how I might be shocked if it continued previous March 21 due to the financial implications of battle, together with greater power and enter prices. Friday, March 20, the bond market took the battle extra significantly and, for the primary time since September of 2025, the 10-year yield closed above 4.31%. The bond market has now priced out all price cuts and is now pricing in a price hike in 2026.
This week is vital to me as a result of we now have a transparent pathway to the 10-year yield hitting 4.60% — the excessive finish of my forecast. If this battle continues and worsens, bond yields will rise and extra price hikes shall be priced in.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads stay a constructive story for housing in 2026, lowering mortgage-rate volatility, and are near regular ranges. Mortgage spreads bought barely worse when bond yields have been falling in February, because the spreads have been attempting to make mortgage charges much less risky with falling yields. Now they’ve gotten worse with this battle as properly.
For now, the spreads are nonetheless very constructive, however their enchancment is the one factor holding charges from being over 7% once more.
Traditionally, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Final week’s spreads closed at 1.97%. Once more, Friday’s single-day unfold is just not accounted for on this weekly knowledge.
Nevertheless, I needed to point out this week’s charges relative to the worst ranges of the spreads over the previous three years, with the 10-year yield at its present degree.
- If we had the worst ranges of mortgage spreads in 2023, mortgage charges can be 7.67% right now, not 6.53%
- If we had the worst ranges of 2024, mortgage charges can be 7.29% right now.
- If we had the worst ranges of 2025, mortgage charges can be 7.10% right now.
Weekly housing stock knowledge
Housing stock ought to now be beginning its annual seasonal enhance. Nevertheless, the expansion price of stock has actually slowed from final yr’s peak ranges, to the purpose that we would see some unfavourable year-over-year prints in our weekly stock. Nonetheless, we’re nonetheless removed from the unhealthy ranges of 2021, 2022 and 2023.
We have now gone from 33% year-over-year progress in stock on the highest level in 2025, to six.35% final week. Prior to now, stock progress picked up amid greater charges, softening demand and rising year-over-year new listings. New listings knowledge continues to be unfavourable yr over yr, however for this week, it’s begin to the spring seasonal enhance.
- Weekly stock change: (March 13-March 20): Stock rose from 697,251 to 705,633
- Similar week final yr: (March 14-March 21): Stock rose from 655,625 to 668,155
New listings knowledge
New listings knowledge has additionally been barely disappointing this yr. Whereas I nonetheless imagine we will get a number of weeks over 80,000, the year-over-year progress price has been barely unfavourable for weeks now.
I’m nonetheless hoping for the brand new listings knowledge to vary between 80,000 and 100,000 per week throughout the seasonal peak intervals, because it did from 2013-2019. For context, throughout the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for a number of years.
Right here is final week’s new listings knowledge for the previous two years:
- 2026: 68,016
- 2025: 69,701
Worth-cut share
Sometimes, about one-third of properties endure worth reductions earlier than they promote, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage charges and stock rise collectively, the share of worth cuts will increase.
In my 2026 worth forecast, I had a unfavourable 0.62% name for the yr nationally.
Nevertheless, mortgage charges have been decrease than I believed they might be initially of the yr and the FHFA’s introduced buy of mortgage-backed securities pushed mortgage spreads decrease than I anticipated. I believed we’d see that enchancment in a while within the yr. So, earlier than the battle began, my forecast seemed fallacious for 2026. Now, if charges head greater and keep greater for longer, I do have a shot at my name being extra right. Nonetheless, the value lower share is under final yr right now.
The worth-cut share for final week:
The week forward: Iran, Iran, Iran and Iran
Nothing issues this coming week however Iran. Final week we broke a key degree on the 10-year and the whole calendar yr is now being formed by greater charges, greater inflation and no price cuts. In actual fact, price hikes at the moment are again within the dialogue for 2026. If this battle will get worse, we will get extra price hikes priced in for 2026, and no Fed member will speak about price cuts except we go right into a hardcore recession. So for now, the Iran battle is shaping what the remainder of 2026 will appear like for the economic system and the housing market.
